The Impact of US Economic Indicators on the Korean Economy: Analysis of Interest Rates, CPI, and Unemployment Claims

Why is the US Economy Important? The Compass of the Global Economy, Key US Indicators

The global economy, including ours, is closely linked to the US economy.

The flow of the US economy has a significant impact on the global financial market and economic policies of each country, so it is essential to closely monitor key US economic indicators.

In particular, the US base interest rate, consumer price index (CPI), and unemployment claim status are key indicators that directly affect the Korean economy.

In this post, we will analyze in depth what each of these three indicators means and how they affect the Korean economy to help you increase your understanding of the economy.

1. US Base Interest Rate: Impact on Korean Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

- What is the Base Interest Rate?

The base interest rate is the interest rate applied when the central bank lends money to commercial banks, and it serves as the standard for all interest rates. In other words, when the base rate rises, the lending rates of commercial banks also tend to rise, and when it falls, the lending rates also tend to fall.

- Recent trends in base rates in Korea and the US

On January 15, the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) froze the base rate at 3.00%.

At the time, there were voices predicting a rate cut due to concerns over a domestic economic slowdown, but it is analyzed that the freeze was chosen to defend the high won/dollar exchange rate (1,450-1,470 won). This is because a rate cut can further increase the pressure on the exchange rate.

In the US, the base rate was 4.5% in December last year, but it is possible that it will be slightly lowered to 4.25% at the January FOMC meeting (scheduled for Wednesday, January 29) or frozen like in Korea.

- Impact of the interest rate gap on the Korean economy

Currently, the **interest rate gap between Korea and the US is approximately 2.5%**. This large interest rate gap raises the following concerns:

- Financial asset outflow overseas: 

Domestic investment funds may flow out to overseas countries such as the US in search of higher interest rates.

- Impact on stock prices: 

Overseas capital outflow can act as downward pressure on the domestic stock market.

The government is using various economic stimulus measures such as the expansion of Onnuri gift certificates, but it is unlikely that the economy will recover in the short term due to external uncertainties such as concerns about high inflation and former President Trump's inauguration remarks scheduled for January 20.

2. US Consumer Price Index (CPI): A key indicator of inflation and interest rate policy

- What is CPI and why is it important?

**Consumer Price Index (CPI)** is an indicator that measures the price changes of goods and services purchased by consumers.

It is one of the most important ways to determine inflation (price increase rate) and indicates the purchasing power of consumers and the overall health of the economy.

- If the CPI figure is higher than expected: 

It means the value of the US dollar has risen and a positive economic outlook. This can be interpreted as a signal of high inflation pressure.

- If the CPI figure is lower than expected: 

It means the value of the US dollar is falling and the economic outlook is negative. This may indicate a possible economic slowdown or deflation (falling prices).

- Recent CPI change rate and Fed's interest rate policy

The actual CPI change rate in the US recently (as of January 15, 2025) was 2.9%, which is the same as the forecast of 2.9%. This is a slight increase from the previous month's 2.7%.

- High CPI increase rate: 

The Federal Reserve (the US central bank) is more likely to consider raising interest rates. This is a measure to stabilize prices.

- Low CPI increase rate or below expectations: 

The Fed is more likely to consider cutting interest rates. This can be interpreted as a measure to stimulate the economy.

The US CPI trend plays a decisive role in determining the direction of the Fed's monetary policy, which in turn affects financial markets around the world, including Korea.

3. US unemployment claims: A barometer of the job market and economic conditions

- What do unemployment claims mean?

The US unemployment claims are released weekly and are an important indicator of the health of the US labor market and the overall direction of the economy.

We can predict changes in the job market by looking at whether the number of new unemployment claims is increasing or decreasing.

- The relationship between unemployment claims and the Fed's interest rate policy

A sustained increase in unemployment claims: This indicates concerns about a worsening job market and slowing economic growth.

The Fed is more likely to consider cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy.

- Low unemployment claims: 

This can be interpreted as a signal that the economy is growing and that the labor market may be overheating.

The Fed is more likely to consider raising interest rates to curb inflation.

- Latest unemployment benefits claims (as of January 18, 2025)

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of new unemployment benefits claims for the week of January 11 increased by 14,000 to 217,000, slightly exceeding the expected 210,000.

In addition, the number of continuous unemployment benefits claims for the week of January 4 decreased by 18,000 to 1,859,000.

When considering these new and continuous unemployment benefits claims, the current U.S. job market is analyzed to be solid.

This can be interpreted as a positive signal for the overall U.S. economy, but inflationary pressures due to the overheating of the labor market should also be monitored.

Conclusion: 

U.S. economic indicators, the key to reading the future of the Korean economy

So far, we have looked at what the U.S. base rate, consumer price index (CPI), and unemployment benefits claims each mean and how they affect the Korean economy.

These three indicators are important individually, but they are organically connected to each other to determine the direction of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy, which in turn creates major trends in the global financial market.

In the current volatile economic situation, consistently monitoring and understanding these US economic indicators is essential to predicting the future of the Korean economy and making wise investment decisions.

We will continue to closely analyze important economic indicators whenever they are announced and provide you with useful information.

Good articles to read together:

[What is inflation? Why the value of money is falling and countermeasures]

[Exchange rate fluctuations, what is the effect on my assets?]

[Rate hike/cut, what is my loan interest?]

#US interest rates #Korean economy #CPI #Consumer price index #Unemployment benefits #Economic indicators #Inflation #Exchange rate #Stocks #Investment #Fed #Financial market

Future value of a Korean company

The purpose of a company is to maximize the profits of shareholders.

This is the saying of Jack Welch, who is known as a management genius, and in fact, he closed down unprofitable companies and fired many workers in order to increase corporate value.

However, in Eastern countries like Korea and Japan, seniority is considered important, so natural status and salary were rising, but now, an evaluation method based on performance is emerging.

Hanwha is an abbreviation for Korean Explosives, and the name was changed because the image of the name reminds people of violence and terrorism in English.

This shows a much softer tone, making it easier to advance into the global market than before, and it is not too much to leave a good impression on the Korean people.

The acquisition of Daehan Life Insurance and its transformation into Hanwha Life Insurance, and the acquisition of four Samsung companies (Samsung Thales, Samsung Techwin, Samsung Total, and Samsung General Chemical) in the fall of 2014, have further expanded the company’s external appearance and enabled it to pursue true business diversification.

Hanwha has a strong image of fire, and when viewed as a symbiotic relationship, a tree fuels the fire and water puts it out.

The acquisition and merger of defense and chemical companies may face difficulties due to lack of funds at the moment, but in the future, it can become a filial company and will gradually transform, and there is no shortage of it as a cornerstone.

Chairman Kim Seung-yeon, the chairman of the board of directors, has a solid appearance and a strong driving force.

People, companies, natural persons, and corporations need to change and transform, and in this regard, I believe this decision is the right one. However, this is on the premise that it will not face financial difficulties like Hyundai Motor Company's purchase of KEPCO land.

And Top's thinking must also change. It hasn't been long since we were free from the English body, but thinking back to that time, it is a time when diligence and self-discipline are required.

HanHwa Sustainability Plan(ESG Management)

Under the holding company of Hanwha Corporation, it has affiliates such as Hanwha Life Insurance, Hanwha Solutions in the petrochemical industry, Hanwha Total Energy in energy, Hanwha Aerospace in the defense industry including aviation, Hanwha Ocean in the shipbuilding industry, and Hanwha Energy in the power generation industry.

Now, Hanwha Group is expanding its scope in the defense industry as well as the marine shipbuilding business, so it is a company with promising prospects for the next 10 years.      

    

Korea's only cathode material manufacturer: POSCO FutureM

 Semiconductors, quantum computers, and artificial intelligence (AI) seem to be the trend, but the importance of batteries, a core component of electric vehicles, is not overstated.

Let's analyze POSCO FutureM, a cathode material manufacturer, one of the four major battery materials.

Among the four major components of batteries, namely secondary batteries, cathode materials, electrolytes, and separators, cathode materials are key materials that determine the battery charging speed and lifespan. There are natural graphite, artificial graphite, and recently silicon graphite materials. Based on artificial graphite, the proportion of battery cell cost is approximately 13%.

Cathode Material Market

Among domestic manufacturers, POSCO Future M is the only one, but its global market share is 9th to 10th, with MS at 3%, and the rest are all Chinese companies such as BTR, Shanshan, Jichen, and Xiangtai.

The reason China is competitive is that, as a resource-rich country, 70% of the raw material graphite is produced in China, and in addition, cathode materials are supplied at the upper $2 per kg based on low electricity rates and government subsidies.

3. Positive factors for stock price increases

1). The goal is to make domestic cathode materials, which are about 50% more expensive than Chinese cathode materials, competitive in price through subsidies. POSCO Future M is currently operating only a 7,500-ton production line at its Sejong Plant 2 with an annual capacity of 45,000 tons. The operating rate has plummeted from 60% in 2022 to 15%, raising concerns about the continuation of the business. However, this time, the government (Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy) subsidy payment has become a positive factor.

2). In May of last year, the United States decided to postpone by two years the plan to not pay electric vehicle sales subsidies (USD 7,500 per vehicle) under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) if Chinese graphite is used (to enforce regulations on cathode materials made of Chinese graphite after two years). This is an acceptance of the demands of electric vehicle and battery cell manufacturers that it is impossible to escape from the Chinese graphite supply chain right away.

3). It is worth paying attention to the fact that L&F, a domestic cathode material company, is preparing to enter the cathode material market by building a joint venture with Mitsubishi of Japan.

The government is promoting a plan to support production subsidies for cathode materials, one of the four major battery materials. The goal is to make domestic cathode materials, which are about 50% more expensive than Chinese cathode materials, competitive in price through subsidies. The only cathode material manufacturer in Korea

n.news.naver.com

4. Silicon cathode materials and next-generation batteries

Silicon cathode materials have a capacity per unit weight that is about 10 times higher than that of graphite, and silicon (Si) can store more lithium atoms than carbon (C), which increases driving distance and shortens charging time, and several companies are developing them in the country.

Lithium sulfur batteries, lithium air batteries, all-solid-state batteries, and sodium ion batteries are actively competing as next-generation batteries.