In early February 2025, the virtual asset market was hot due to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s prediction of a Bitcoin price of 1 billion won and expectations for President Trump’s inauguration.
However, as of June 25, the market atmosphere is quite different. Will Fink’s prediction become reality? Let’s take a closer look at the present and future of Bitcoin and altcoins.
Larry Fink’s Bitcoin Price of 1 Billion Won: Is It Still Valid?
Last year, at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink mentioned that Bitcoin had the potential to reach $700,000 (about 1 billion won) per coin. His remarks were because he highly evaluated the value of Bitcoin as an independent asset that is not controlled by any sovereign country.
In particular, the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) starting last year has opened the way for individual and institutional investors to easily invest in Bitcoin like stocks. This is interpreted as a positive signal that will encourage large-scale investment funds into Bitcoin, ultimately leading to Bitcoin adoption and potential appreciation.
Despite such an optimistic outlook, the extreme volatility of the virtual asset market should always be kept in mind. For example, in El Salvador, which adopted Bitcoin as its legal currency, the majority of the population is having difficulty using it, and it is showing the limitations of effectively responding to volatility other than its function as a national asset storage.
What is the real reason for the decline in Bitcoin in June 2025?
Since early February 2025, Bitcoin has been weak, falling below the $100,000 mark several times in conjunction with the inauguration of President Trump. However, this cannot be attributed solely to the Trump administration. The main factors that have influenced the decline in Bitcoin at this point in time are as follows:
1. The lukewarm policy stance of the Trump administration
In February, when President Trump did not mention virtual assets on the day of his inauguration (January 20), the market expressed disappointment and the $100,000 mark slipped for the first time. In addition, the Trump administration's suggestion of imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, etc. in mid-February, which led to increased risk aversion due to concerns about rising prices, also contributed to the decline.
2. Technological advancement and sober assessment of the market
On February 27, the news that Chinese startup Deepseek had developed a low-cost, high-efficiency artificial intelligence (AI) affected the New York Stock Exchange and the Bitcoin market. The relative attractiveness of the virtual asset market may have decreased as investment funds moved to AI-related sectors along with expectations for new technological innovations.
3. Uncertainty of macroeconomic indicators
Currently (June 25, 2025), the market is still sensitive to various macroeconomic variables such as inflation concerns, the possibility of an interest rate hike, and anxiety about an economic recession. As uncertainty increases, investors tend to withdraw funds from Bitcoin, a high-risk asset class.
4. Rising mining difficulty and decreasing mining volume
The continuous increase in Bitcoin mining difficulty in recent months, and the decrease in mining rewards due to the halving, can also act as a price pressure factor on the supply side. In the long term, this can increase scarcity and become a price increase factor, but in the short term, it can lead to a deterioration in profitability for miners.
The Future of Bitcoin: Strategic Assetization vs. Clarification of Regulations
The future of Bitcoin will still be determined by several variables.
1. Possibility of 'Strategic Assetization' by the US Federal Government
There are ongoing arguments that the best way forward would be for the Trump administration to purchase Bitcoin as a strategic asset and encourage state governments and other national governments to participate in the purchase. This could be a powerful catalyst that could further enhance Bitcoin's status.
2. Clarification of the Regulatory Framework
Up until now, the market has been confused by the mention of only regulations without a specific plan for strategic assetization of Bitcoin. However, the promise of creating a clear regulatory framework will contribute to increasing transparency and stability in the market in the long term and gaining investor trust. This could ultimately be a positive factor that increases the maturity of the Bitcoin market.
3. Influence of the Trump administration's policies
Despite the fact that virtual assets are not subject to the control of any country, the virtual asset policies of the United States, especially the Trump administration, are expected to be the biggest variable in the short term. The market is still paying keen attention to the movements of the US government.
The Future of Altcoins: Will they be dependent on Bitcoin or will they take their own path?
The movement of Bitcoin also has a significant impact on the altcoin market. When Bitcoin rises, altcoins tend to rise along with it, but when Bitcoin falls, altcoins can fall more sharply.
However, not all altcoins are dependent on Bitcoin. Each altcoin's unique technological prowess, real-life applicability, and community activation can become its own growth drivers. In particular, altcoins specialized in specific fields such as AI, DeFi, NFT, and metaverse have the potential to increase their value along with the growth of those fields.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin and altcoin markets still have high volatility, there is ample potential for long-term growth if spot ETF approvals, regulatory clarification efforts, and innovative technological developments continue. However, investors should always manage risk through a cautious approach and diversification.
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Thanks a lot